Condition of Nottinghamshire - Regeneration
4) Regeneration
All the indicators used to measure performance under this priority match those used in Condition of Nottinghamshire 2000 and this has allowed progress to be measured year on year; in addition all but one of the regeneration indicators can be measured at the ward level and all except two have been mapped.
Enterprise, measured by the number of small firms reaching the turnover threshold beyond which VAT is paid (currently £52,000 per annum), is the only indicator under this priority for which data is not available at ward level. In spite of this, this is an important indicator as it is the best proxy for small firm formation which is generally held to be a good predictor of future economic growth.
Whereas Condition of Nottinghamshire 2000 recorded an overall county-wide increase of 3.2% in VAT registrations between 1997 and 1998, there was an increase of less than one percent between 1999 and 2000. This decline is mirrored by the regional and national figures both of which are well down on previous figures. This change may be an early reflection of the economic down turn and a fall in confidence leading to fewer business start-ups.
In examining comparative district figures it is interesting to note that only Rushcliffe and Bassetlaw record a decline in the numbers of registrations of small firms. The Rushcliffe figure is particularly noteworthy because the district previously recorded an increase of 10% between 1997 and 1998.
Employment Change figures for the county overall mirror those given in the last edition. Whereas previously in the East Midlands and nationally, positive employment change exceeded the county's rate of change, in this edition the reverse is true. Both Broxtowe and Mansfield record double digit percentage increases but again Rushcliffe shows a decline.
The ward breakdown shows some interesting variations, even within individual settlements; for example, 2 Hucknall wards record negative employment change whilst the remaining 2 record substantial increases, Hucknall West by 122%. Care should be taken with the interpretation of some of these figures however as large percentage differences can mask relatively small changes in the actual number of jobs, or can be caused by changes in the way that company data is compiled, posted or analysed.
The map showing employment change within each ward in the county ( R1), shows the patterns of positive and negative employment change but no real geographical pattern emerges.
The Unemployment rate for the county shows a decline of 0.8% since the last edition of Condition was published and this decline is mirrored by similar changes in the regional and national rate. The 4.9% unemployment rate in Bassetlaw exceeds that of Mansfield and Ashfield whilst districts in greater Nottingham all record substantially lower rates.
District rates mask significant disparities at the ward level with several wards in Bassetlaw and Mansfield having rates of over 7% (Carlton, Hodsock, Worksop North West and Northfield and one (Worksop South East) of over 8%. Conversely, several wards in the county record unemployment of less than 1%; these include Muskham and Trent in Newark & Sherwood and North Keyworth, Tollerton and Thoroton in Rushcliffe.
Once again the map ( R2) shows the county-wide picture of unemployment and it can be seen from this that with one or two exceptions high rates are concentrated in the north west of the county.
Youth Unemployment has fallen by a full percentage point since the last edition of Condition of Nottinghamshire was published. This improvement may have been influenced by the government's particular focus upon 18-24 year olds under the New Deal programme. Highest rates are still most clearly seen to be concentrated in Bassetlaw and Mansfield. The ward breakdown shows significantly high levels in Kirkby in Ashfield East, Sutton in Ashfield East, Carlton, East Retford West, Misterton and several Worksop wards; in Berry Hill and Oak Tree, both of which have rates in excess of 10% and in Clipstone. Again, the map ( R3) shows higher rates to be concentrated in the north and west of the county with the exception of several isolated wards in Rushcliffe, Gedling and Newark & Sherwood.
Long Term Unemployment is defined as people unemployed for over 12 months. This indicator too has seen significant falls - from 0.9% to 0.5% of the economically active population. Ashfield and Bassetlaw have the worst rates. Wards in Retford, Worksop and several more rural parts of Bassetlaw have rates in excess of 1%; these are levels which are only approached by few other wards in the county including Hucknall East, Jacksdale, Newstead and Devon in Newark. Once again, Map R4 is useful in showing concentrations of both low and high long-term unemployment.
Migration is listed as an indicator under regeneration as it can be viewed as reflecting the relative attractiveness of areas or can be affected by the availability of employment opportunities. Whereas earlier figures for 1997/98 showed a fall in population numbers largely due to significant out-migration from coalfield areas, this edition shows that the overall population of the county increased by 3% between 1998 and 1999, boosted by significant in-migration in Rushcliffe, Bassetlaw, and Newark & Sherwood. Ward figures show significant variation and this is underlined by the map ( R5). Care should once again be taken in interpreting figures for individual years as relatively small developments can be misinterpreted as longer-term trends.
The Employment Land indicator again shows an increase from 17.5% of all employment land identified in 1993 having been developed by 1998, as reported in Condition of Nottinghamshire 2000, to 25.1% in the period 1993-2000. The highest rates of development in this period have been in Broxtowe and Ashfield whilst the lowest has been in Newark & Sherwood.
